During my time in frontline politics, I met with a wide range of individuals. Few impressed me as much as did Conor Cruise O'Brien. Conor has been categorised as a "political maverick" for many years, he is an authentic friend of unionism, and I supposed the fact that he ended up in the same political grouping as Bob McCartney and myself is not entirely surprising! Conor is an elegant and easy writer with profound political insight that is always worth reading. This past week he has turned his attention (Sub required) to the IRA, and it's current shape-shifting...
'They haven't gone away, you know" was the notorious response of a Sinn Fein spokesman some years ago to optimistic observations by Fianna Fail and some other politicians as to the supposed gradual fading away of the IRA.
Well, they still haven't gone away. It is true that their sphere of military and political operations has recently been drastically reduced. This is due not to any spontaneous change of heart on their part, but to events in the outside world.
By far the most important change has been the election of President George Bush for a second term. Very shortly after his re-election, President Bush took a firm and consistent line against terrorism, a subject about which his immediate predecessors had been consistent only in their shilly-shallying.
Almost all commentators on this side of the Atlantic had been happy to dither in their footsteps and go very easy on the IRA. It is clear that the newly re-elected President Bush, on a visit to Ireland shortly after his re-election, and amid a flurry of wild conjectures, quietly conveyed to his hosts that the previous policy of quiet, shifty and deniable collusion with Sinn Fein-IRA would have to stop, because the United States would no longer tolerate it....
It' a shame that commentators like Conor are not given more time and coverage as their opinions are always richly rewarding.
It's a pity for the CCO'B that the peace strategy and the ceasefire and the Agreement preceeded 9/11. It would make his fantasy more believable and more comforting for his fans if they did not.
Having watched events unfold from the republican side I was never in any doubt that the ballot-box would require the end of the aramlite. And I never doubted that the leadership knew that and were working for that.
But I wouldn't mind if unionists bought ito O'Briens view. If the war is over because we are afraid of the Americans then the war is over isn't it.
So let's get down to business.
Posted by: Henry94 | December 12, 2005 at 10:23 AM
He's a fascinating man with much to offer.
Posted by: Madradin Ruad | December 12, 2005 at 10:24 AM
Henry - the ending of the strategy of SF's "we are almost there, give us some more or else" concurrent with IRA activity came AFTER 9/11.
Posted by: Madradin Ruad | December 12, 2005 at 10:33 AM
"President Bush took a firm and consistent line against terrorism, a subject about which his immediate predecessors had been consistent only in their shilly-shallying."
i think youll find bushs shilly shallying pre 911 was bordering on negligent.
Posted by: rich | December 12, 2005 at 10:47 AM
... I am waiting for someone to jump in with the usual line about what an OUTRAGEOUS and out-of-touch man CCO'B is!
For my part, I think he's got breadth -of-vision and a generosity that is almost entirely absent in Irish politics, north or south.
Posted by: DST | December 12, 2005 at 11:03 AM
DST
Apart from the fact that he has been more often wrong than right on predictions for Northern Ireland. I remember his infamous Sunday Times article just after the original IRA ceasefire of 1994 in which he confidently predicted a doomsday strategy was unfolding that would lead to thousands of deaths within a period of about 6 months. He is also very wrong on President Bush. He has continued to claim that Bush will not tolerate the UK and Irish govts. doing deals with terrorists when it is clear to anyone that Bush has happily gone along with the decisions of the UK and Irish governments. The truth being that Northern Ireland and how our 2 governments deal with it simply doesn't bother Bush that much.
Posted by: Colm | December 12, 2005 at 11:27 AM
Where he was right was in suggesting to the Unionists that they should consider a united Ireland.
They would have a government with no Hain, and no Sinn Fein.
Posted by: Henry94 | December 12, 2005 at 11:35 AM
He's an important figure in Irish history.
Posted by: Hugh Green | December 12, 2005 at 11:43 AM
"generosity" ????
Posted by: Jo | December 12, 2005 at 11:43 AM
...mentioning generosity and O/T:
David, have you looked at Ovoca Gold (OVG) in recent days? I mentioned it to you previously, its up 12% this morning, another JOBLOG tip coming to fruition!
Posted by: Jo | December 12, 2005 at 11:53 AM
Good one Jo - will check it.
Posted by: David Vance | December 12, 2005 at 11:59 AM
Jo,
I can also recommend Griffin Mining stock - up 16% today!
Posted by: David Vance | December 12, 2005 at 01:15 PM
Ah but David I tipped u OVG some months back lol
Posted by: Jo | December 12, 2005 at 07:06 PM
He's a lovely man!
Posted by: Aileen | December 12, 2005 at 07:21 PM
Nice pick Jo.
I'll have to watch for future tips like that one.
Posted by: Canadiana | December 12, 2005 at 08:14 PM
..and I tipped Griffin six mnths ago, when they were 34p.They are now 61p! Cheers.
Posted by: David Vance | December 12, 2005 at 10:05 PM