Life and Times

My thanks go to Paula Devine for today's publication of the latest Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey.  The most interesting question for me is always the long-term constitutional preferences of the respondents.  As I have said before, no poll or academic survey conducted since 1969 has shown support for an all-Ireland state topping 30%; this survey is no different.

Even looking at the results of all the Life and Times studies conducted since 1998, there is nothing to satiate Irish separatism.  Since its inception in 1998, support has been consistently high for the Union.  Look at 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2003 to see the point I'm making.  Of course, the traditional rejoinder from separatists harks back to electoral voting preferences.  However, as Austen Morgan makes clear in his excellent legal text on the Belfast Agreement:

'A substantial section of the people in Northern Ireland (who apparently wish for a united Ireland) is conjecture, even if it may be inferred from political alignment.  A prediction on how people would vote on a specific question (border poll) is an entirely different matter.'

There is no legal, demographic, economic or political basis to tear Ulster from the Union.  Therefore, the efforts of the DUP should be channelled into keeping those who desire to do so away from the institutions of governance.

Comments

[Colm]

Blimey Andrew - your coming over all 'Felix Quigley' again. Be more like David, and give us your views on a much wider range of issues. I know your time is precious with your new job commitments, but er , we got the message long ago about your take on the whole 'Irish question?!' let us hear your views on (for eaxample) Nicaraguan urban development and it's impact on central American socio-economic relations :)

[Jo]

Andrew,

What was the basis for the inclusion of Fermanagh, Tyrone, south Armagh, south Down and the City of Derry in Northern Ireland in the first place as local majorities in those areas did not want to be "torn" from the then Free State?

[FewsOrange]

How accurate do you think these figures are given that the following are the results of their question on political parties.
Which Northern Ireland political party would you support?

Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) 21
Social Democratic & Labour Party (SDLP) 17
Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) 16
Alliance Party 5
Sinn Fein 9
Progressive Unionist Party (PUP) 0
Women's Coalition 1
Other party (specify) 1
(None) 26
Other answer (specify) 3
(Don't know) 1

[beano @ Everything Ulster]

FO - bare in mind that this was presumably a survey that actively sought people's opinion's about their preferred party, rather than waiting for them to come to a polling station. It therefore wouldn't necessarily reflect election results, since both Sinn Fein and DUP supporters are, I believe anyway, more likely to vote.

[Andrew McCann]

FO

The figures for party preferences do not show a continuum over three decades. The figures for constitutional preferences do, and they are far too numerous to be discarded.

[Danny Giesbrecht]

Of course the majority in NI want to retain the Union.
Why would anyone think otherwise?

I also wonder why Tyrone or Fermanagh were included in NI? I would think there were more unionists in Donegal at the time.