An Eye Opener

With all the claims and counter claims over who got what in the latest Ulster election results, I've decided to give ATW readers a statistical break-down of each constituency, coupled with the rise or fall in the overall share of the Unionist/nationalist vote as against that seen in 2001.  I think you'll find the results rather surprising, notwithstanding the actual representational composition of the eighteen seats.  Unionist percentages are coloured orange; nationalist figures are green (what else!).

East Antrim = +3.8, -1.9

North Antrim = -1.5, +1.3

South Antrim = -4.6, +2.5

East Belfast = -0.3, +0.2

North Belfast = -0.1, -0.4

South Belfast = +6.3, +3.1

West Belfast = +0.3, +0.1

Fermanagh & South Tyrone = +1.6, +0.2

Foyle = -5.3, +2.7

Lagan Valley = +6.3, +0.2

Londonderry East = +4.5, -3.2

Mid Ulster = +3.1, -2.9

Newry & Armagh = +0.6, -1.7

North Down = +2.7, -0.5

South Down = -4.4, +4.5

Strangford = -5.3, +1.0

Upper Bann = +0.1, -0.1

West Tyrone = -5.7, -21.5

Are there any immediate observations which spring to mind?

Comments

[Hugh Green]

Andrew, just to clarify:

Newry & Armagh = +0.6, -1.7

Does this mean that the overall number of 'Orange' votes cast increased by 0.6% whereas the overall number of 'Green' votes cast decreased by 1.7%

[Andrew McCann]

Hugh

Indeed it does. All figures represent the combined UUP/DUP and SDLP/Sinn Fein votes as against the numbers in the '01 General Election.

[Colm]

Andrew

By nationalist vote I presume you mean SDLP and Sinn Fein, but is the unionist vote DUP and UUP or with smaller parties added on, and have you excluded the Alliance and other fringe parties. How did you determine what constituted a nationalist or unionist totality?

[Colm]

Oops too late, you answered my question before I had posted it.

Thanks

PS. West Tyrone seems a bit funny. Is it becuase of that hospital campaigner fellow.

[Chris Gaskin]

In Newry and Armagh it has to be remembered that Unionists have always voted tactically for Mallon to keep Sinn Féin out.

When it became clear the sdlp hadn't a hope they returned to the UUP

[decent ulster unionist]

Nice spin but the difference between the Nationalist and Unionist vote is getting closer. 75546 in 2001 and 71732 in 2005. There is no point avoiding a problem by ignoring it.