Apocalypse Now!

Have a considered look at this article from the excellent Mark Steyn.  I won't offer comment; I'll let you come to your own conclusions.  The only thing I will add is that Ghadaffi's statistics indicative of 50 million European Muslims failed to mention that 27.65 million of those 50 million (actually 50.9 million in 2005) live in Russia; 2.2 million live in Albania and 2.34 live in Bosnia.  Thus, the total Muslim population in non-Islamic Europe is 18.71 million people.

Comments

[daytripper]

again, more emotive single sided pap. i read about half of it and skimmed the second half, but no-where did i see it mention that well off nations/people breed less and poorer nations/people breed more.

western civilisation is going to change inside our generation. but the reason has nothing to do with religion, or even demography. a change in the religous symmetry may come about due to this change but it wont be the cause of it.
western society is up the creek because of oil and how it underpins our economy. without oil our economies will flounder and collapse. at best we can hope for an extended period of flat economics. no growth but no major fall either. if this becomes a trend then you can rest assured that oil has peaked and it is no longer possible to drive the economy forward and upward.
after that, our economies will begin to fall, and will never recover. some speculate that the inevitable rise in civil unrest this will cause is the real reason for the draconian legislation being passed in the US and Europe. its a compelling theory, especially if you get your head around the fact that oil governs our lives completely, and any reduction in its availability will be felt rather abruptly. from a lack of home heating to less food on the shelves.

i seriously put this article into the demonisation pile, as i would be of the opinion that islam is being groomed for the role of fall guy in western society. it makes much more sense to humans, to blame a person or type of person, rather than the abstract notion that its all to do with less oil at the petrol station.

andrew. you asked, :P

[Colm]

daytripper

You think it's oil. Mark Steyn thinks it's Muslims . The world always changes and for may reasons never a single one. I think Mark Steyn is too pessimistic but I think his article was fascinating and very well written.

Oil, muslims whatever.

It's time Ireland started developing a nuclear deterrent to ensure it once again becomes the land of Saints of Scholars as the rest of Europe sinks into the Dark Ages.

[daytripper]

raising a union jack at sien fein ard feish is likely to cause some sort of atomic chain reaction. or a tricolor at the DUP annual conference.

[Cunningham]

I also think this article is trying to stir up hysteria for basically propaganda purposes.

A few decades ago, people like Steyn were indulging into a demographic tizzy about the Chinese, at a time when the west was at loggerheads with that country, of course. Now after detante, the Chinese demographic threat isn't even mentioned. Now it's all those millions of Muslims. How convenient for single-issue Steyn!

(and mentioning the Muslims in Bosnia is really rather tasteless. There was recently a war in that country involving Orthodox, Catholics and Muslims, and the latter was by far the group least prone to sectarian massacre).

Besides, a demographic advantage was never the decisive factor in human conflict, as he stupidly suggests it will be. Since the Greeks made such a good show against the Persians at Thermopolae, outnumbered literally over 100 to 1, it has been clear to all but the prejudiced like Steyn that training, weapons, discipine and tactics are what count.

In conflict, persuasion is more imporant that the number of people. Did Castro not start the Cuban revolution with about 50 men? But that's an example people like Steyn would probably prefer to forget.

[Cunningham]

= "getting into a demographic tizzy"

[Colm]

Good points cunningham. Numbers do not always mean dominance. Look at the population of Israel and how it has survived surrounded by a vastly greater number of enemies, and even the white South Africans kept control of that country for over half a century despite being in a small minority. Steyn also ignores the fact that the offspring of immigrants will inevitably over generations become acclimatised and naturally emersed into the
Western secularised culture of Europe whatever short term frictions we may be experiencing at the moment.

[ch in texas]

"Look at the population of Israel and how it has survived surrounded by a vastly greater number of enemies,"

Colm, That's exactly Steins's point. Israel is vastly outnumbered by enemies and has been in a perpetual state of war with them for 60 years. What happens 60 years hence when you can substitute "Ireland" for "Israel"?

[Peter]

Muslim percentage of poulation of European countries:

France 10%
Holland 6%
Denmark 5%
Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Belgium 4%
UK, Sweden 3%
Spain, Norway 2%
Italy 1%

So let's not get carried away folks. There is a problem, but not a tidal wave.

[Cunningham]

Colm, I agree.

The main reason for optimism is, however, the seemingly irresistable rise of consumerism and all that it brings. Ugly it is, but consumerism has a great knack of undermining allegiences to anything except itself: tragic in the sense of allegience to family and community, but welcome in the case of religious and nationalist fanaticism.
Who could ever have thought that, for example, Catholicism would have been so quickly and completely erased from the Irish social scene. But erased it was, and by consumerism and international pop culture.

I don't think there is any popular religious or nationalist sentiment around that is immune to this lure, once it is seen to be realisable, of course. In the Muslim world today it isn't, and that is one of the main reasons for this new fanaticism, but that will hopefully change in the medium term.

The only risk therefore is that something like the economic collapse described by Daytripper will come to pass.

[ch in texas]

Cunningham, That's why the Muslims call us the "great Satan." We are the temptors.

[ch in texas]

Also, good point and Ireland and RC. Perhaps also a great stressor like the bird flu ripping a demographic swathe through the third world would have an effect.

[Colm]

ch

Steyn was claiming that is purely about demographic numbers. Once the Muslims reach 50% plus 1 that's it , were all Talibanised. Far too pessimistic and simplistic. Cunnungham makes the excellent point above about influences that will weaken religous fervour.

The point about Israel conflicts with Steyn. Israel has always been vastly outnumbered demographically in a regional sense and yes while it has always been in a difficult situation , it has remained extant free, democratic advanced and succesfull for almost 60 years and despit the doommongers it isn't even close to losing that position. The idea of Arab armies sweeping the Jewish state aside is less likely than ever it was in 1973, 1967 or 1948.

I don't deny that Islamic extremism poses a problem but the notion that Europe will be wholly Islamicised by 2050 is nonsense.

[Cunningham]

>>That's why the Muslims call us the "great Satan".<<

Ch, "the Muslims" don't. Muslim fanatics do, as they rightly fear the effect of western consumerism on their recruitment base.

[Colm]

ch

You almost sound as though you would welcome a great cull of the 'third world' hordes!

[Peter]

As an atheist I must add that Islam appears to be the most violent religion superstition in 2006. Can't see the christians, hindus, buddists or jews causing mass-murder in the name of their sky-god.

[Tom Tyler]

I think another thing that is often overlooked (well not overlooked, its just that you can't really factor it in, in advance) is that one truly charismatic leader can often change the whole outlook of a country and set it going on a particular path, within a reasonably short timespan. Obvious examples from WW2, Hitler and Churchill, I suppose. Who could have predicted events or their outcomes without those characters on the scene?

[ch in texas]

Cunninghan, you "know" what i mean!

Colm, It did read like that didn't it. But the 1st world has vaccines in the works. If the bird flu has an 80% mortality rate, what will it do to Bangladesh or India or Africa? A quote from a monk alive duing the Black Death comes to mind; "Hands to bury the dead could not be found for love nor money."

[Colm]

Tom

Well I suppose we can look forward to the 'charismatic' Gordon Brown rousing the nation into a frenzy , or at the very least he will bore the Islamic invaders to death - well, the ones that survive ch's birdflu epidemic anyway.

Muslim percentage of poulation of European countries:

France 10%
Holland 6%
Denmark 5%
Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Belgium 4%
UK, Sweden 3%
Spain, Norway 2%
Italy 1%

But what are the %ages under 18-years of age and the fecundity of their cultural/racial groups of origin? Those determine the make-up of the next generation, and we'll be around to see it. I'd also reckon that the above numbers are an under-estimate, given the refusal to control the borders of the EU.

[daytripper]

Can't see the christians, hindus, buddists or jews causing mass-murder in the name of their sky-god.

thats because the west has outsourced it to the secular world of high finance and corporatism. money is their god.

[notme]

What if Steyn is right? Will Judeo-Christian Europe accept its transformation into an islamic culture?

[Colm]

Steyne is not remotely right. Look around you, Right or wrong , Europe or at least the UK has become far more liberal , in the hedonistic sense than could have even been imagined a decade ago. We are nowhere near become Islamified. It is a scaremongering trick of the VWRC.

[notme]

Steyn is interested in scaremongering tricks? For what purpose?

[daytripper]

Will Judeo-Christian Europe accept its transformation into an islamic culture?

no. faux christians of the right will fight the bit out with faux muslims of the right.