From the Kirk to the Bog

A really interesting thread has opened up on Slugger concerning a piece written by one Adam Maguire on what concept would underpin the position of the pro-Union people in Northern Ireland in the event of Scottish separatism.  The Horsemen of the Provocalypse (such as Stephen Copeland - who wishes to take a wrecking ball to the former home of Edward Carson just because my co-blogger, David, has signed the petition calling for its preservation; as indeed have I.  Quick, grab the baby-grow) are positively salivating at the prospect of Ulster's Unionist majority (which is considerably more than the 55% sectarian demographic so touted by Oirish separatists) being effectively left high and dry by expressing fealty to a Union that, in traditional terms, could no longer exist.  I will come to the ramifications for Northern Ireland later, but for now I wish to concentrate on the fanciful hullabaloo accompanying the alleged rise in support for Scottish independence.

Conor Murphy, IRA terrorist representative for the sludge of South Armagh, has made a similar analysis.  The dissolution of the entire United Kingdom remains an aspirational goal for many Irish republicans, even though it is rarely mentioned.  The objective is to deprive the Northern majority of their birthright by default, as well as some delusional historical rectification under the guise of 'celtic solidarity'.  Having failed to achieve the former by killing, lies, propaganda, economic arguments, bombing, bonking and communal unrest, the last hope for Irish republicans lies in the perceived intentions of the Scottish people.  As one of the republican cheerleaders on Slugger has said, 'Irish unity will be struck in Edinburgh, not Dublin.'

OK, let's start with Scotland.  The chances of an independent Scotland outside the United Kingdom are zero, zilch and pie in the sky.  The entire social, cultural, political and economic life of that part of the Union is closely tied to its remaining constituent parts.  Like several Scottish Tories who have called for a border poll, I am firmly of the believe that a referendum on separatism would be overwhelmingly defeated.  As for the guff about 'Scottish' oil, I have to point out that, as well as being of decreasing necessity to the rest of the UK, the question of oil reserves is an erroneous one.  The unwritten constitution of the UK vests sole sovereign authority with the Westminster Parliament - a position also recognised in international law.  As is the case with Northern Ireland, Westminster can ultimately choose to grant independence to Scotland or not.  As the territorial seas of the UK, in which the oil platforms are located, also come under the sovereign aegis of Westminster, does anyone think Parliament would be so stupid to grant Scottish independence together with the surrender of rights to oil recovered in what were previously United Kingdom waters?  Don't be so stupid!  If the oil reserves of the North Sea were of primary importance to the UK's energy supplies, there is no way Westminster would give up the sovereignty of the North Sea to a newly-independent country.  North Sea (not 'Scottish') oil is either of huge economic importance to the whole UK, in which case it would remain part of the sovereign remit of Westminster; or it is not, in which case the argument for an oil-rich independent Alba falls at the very first hurdle.

However, just supposing the UK did fall apart.  For Unionists, the territorial entity is Northern Ireland.  Although the membership of the Union for that territory is of massive importance to each and every British person in Antrim, Armagh, Down, Londonderry, Fermanagh and Tyrone, it is not as important as preserving the Unionist identity and raison d'etre.  Part, and only part, of the underlying fundamental of Unionism is a resolve never to become part of the Irish Republic.  Nationalists can pontificate for eternity their usual soundbites of 'increased influence for Unionists in a dynamic economy of 4 million people', and all the rest of the rubbish which makes not one iota of difference to the Unionist people and their preferences.  The fact is that Northern Ireland would remain part of the resultant United Kingdom of which Scotland would no longer be a part.  If Wales too went its own way, the choice for Ulster's majority would be as an independent entity.  And do not think, for one second, that many people would not be willing to create that independence in the most rigorous possible way - as tragic as it could be in human terms.

Comments

[Reg]

Hmmm.

I fear you are right about the chances of Scottish independence. The desire for full independence doesn't appear to be there.

However, the idea that Westminster would veto Scottish independence even if the Scottish people voted for it is nonsensical. Thankfully, Britain has grown up since the 1920s.

"And do not think, for one second, that many people would not be willing to create that independence in the most rigorous possible way - as tragic as it could be in human terms."

I have no doubt they would be very willing (and very rigorous); but they would fail.

[john]

What a simple unchanging world you live in Mr McCann. As you get older you’ll realise that things do change. The chances of an independent Scotland are higher than you suppose, either in a single step (a referendum) or slowly by continuing transferral of power to Edinburgh. The devolution project is stressing the union nicely, as can be seen by the rise of English nationalism. By the way, I also want to see England gain independence. They’d be better off not having to ‘subvent’ us anymore, as is the continual whinge. As for UK owning the oil, there wouldn’t be a the UK if (when) Scotland became independent. Ownership would have to be re-negotiated. The oil is landed here afterall, and at least some of it is processed here. Anyway, the oil isn’t necessary for a successful independent Scotland. If Iceland can do then so can we. As for Ireland, I don’t think you need to worry. I think in a generation the southerners won’t want Ulster anymore.

[HJ]

* I think in a generation the southerners won’t want Ulster anymore.*

A generation? I think their day has come now. The feeling's mutual. Now if the irish Government can keep their nose out of our affairs, then we can get on with trying to be good neighbours, over a lovely strong fence called "THE BORDER" and co-operate when mutually or morally beneficial to do so. While I'm all for the Union, if Scotland and Iceland can survive as an Independent state, then so can Northern Ireland. We don't need the South at all.

[Reg]

"I think in a generation the southerners won’t want Ulster anymore."

You'd be surprised.

Opinion polls and my own personal experience (in supposedly apathetic Dublin) wouldn't agree with that.

[Todd]

Andrew, Whats that last sentence all about?.

[john]

Why unify with Ulster Reg? you're doing well without them. My northern Irish friends despise the south. I’ve been in company that actually thinks that the southern irish are “inferior.” It can only be sentimentality to want to unify with them. Why would the (irish) children of Polish and Latvian immigrants of the future give a sod about Ulster. If anything, I think the majority of the northern irish would prefer to unify with us (the Scots). My friend’s would see themselves more as Ulster Scots than Irish. We have big Orange marches here, Rangers FC, a predominantly protestant country. Its not as if you really want Orange men in Dublin (the FAIR march as few months ago). Or this http://www.ulster-scots.co.uk/docs/articles/historical/exodus.htm

[Henry94]

Much as Scottish independence would suit the Irish national interest it is entirely a matter for Scotland and England to work out their relationship.

Under the Agreement an independent Northern Ireland is not an option. Only a combination of naivety and mendacity lead Andrew to contemplate it.

Neither the English or Irish government nor the EU nor America would allow anybodies doomsday fantasies to become a reality.

There would simply be no realistic political alternative to Irish unity.

[Allan@Aberdeen]

But what if the English decide that they don't want to be ruled by the (Scottish) Labour Party which is a minority party in England? Add to this that a lot of English are a bit pissed off about the open anti-English sentiment expressed up here and enough English will decide that they've had all they can take. It's not just Scots who decide the fate of the Union.

[Dan]

The last sentence means loyalists would resort to violence and Andrew wouldn't have a problem with it.

[Des]

Andrew

"create that independence in the most rigorous possible way - as tragic as it could be in human terms"

Sounds like you're suggesting that "Loyalists" should resort to violence - so much for law and order then.

How will this "Independent entity" be funded? If the "Loyalists" resort to violence against State forces (and any Catholic they can get their hands on), I don't think that the UK govt will be too keen on continuing to provide the billions that NI annually gets in handouts.

Independent Entity - it would be broke in a week!

[Reg]

"Why unify with Ulster Reg? you're doing well without them."

Well, I'm an Ulsterman so I have a not-so-hidden agenda for it. ;)

The dismemberment of Ireland is still a festering sore no matter how wealthy the Republic becomes.

[Andrew McCann]

'Sounds like you're suggesting that "Loyalists" should resort to violence - so much for law and order then.'

Nice twist on my words. I'm suggesting from several historical precedents, including those on the island of Ireland, that a not insignificant proportion of the pro-Union people would refuse to on a part of that island outside the United Kingdom.

There is no 'Irish unity', because the very term 'Irish' excludes too many people to ever hope to bring the island forward as one sovereign entity. A clear majority in Northern Ireland are British, and will not give that entitlement up.

[Adam]

Interesting piece; I still wonder why it is a central part of Unionism to avoid a connection with the RoI, but I'm sure that differs from person to person.
I'd just like to point out that while I believe an Independent Scotland or even devolved England would increase the chances of a United Ireland I am wise enough to know that it is far more complex than that; I make no bones about the fact that a UI would be something I'd like to see but quite frankly I know that if it happened tomorrow it would be a bad thing, on both social and economic grounds.
I'd love to see a UI when the Unionist community decide it's right for them, not when they are coerced into it because they feel isolated; chances are that's not going to happen anytime soon but there's always the possibility. Until then, if you've read my blog in the past, I've made it perfectly clear that I reject the likes of SF/IRA and all the other violent groups; they've done more harm than good in reality.
I've said it once and I'll say it again, If I was offered a choice between a peaceful British NI that could never join the RoI or a continuation of the current violence and political ignorance I know what I'd pick.

[JoJo]

"OK, let's start with Scotland. The chances of an independent Scotland outside the United Kingdom are zero, zilch and pie in the sky"

Any figures to prove this point? You seem to be talking more from an already arrived at conclusion than taking in all the facts. One major fact that you omit is the rise of English Nationalism. If the English decide that they are done paying everyone elses way, then thats it, game over. The Scots are also looking at their situation. There economy is in a rut, their young blood is leaving (by 2020, the ROI will have a larger population that Scotland). Now I'm not suggesting that the breakup of the Union is imminent, but these are factors that are at work and to suggest that the cahnces of Scotland breaking away are zero is foolish.

The point you make in regards Scotland and it's oil is out of date. I'm sure Westministers attitude has matured since the early 1900's. A demcratic vote in Scotland for independance will overide Westminister. This is how a democracy works.

The point you make in regards an independant NI also is missing a few logical points. How do you intend keeping any of the Nationalist dominated counties within an independant NI? You can take it as a certain that these counties will opt to join with the ROI.

"I’ve been in company that actually thinks that the southern irish are “inferior.” "
John,
We're well used to hearing jibes like this one, but it's the people who say this who usually seem to have a confidence issue in themselves and put others down to feel better. This might have annoyed a few southerners in the past, but these days we're usually too busy making money and competing on a modern global market to be offended by some biggoted remarks from a few fools around a parish pump in Ballymena.

[Madradin Ruad]

these days we're usually too busy making money and competing on a modern global market

3 shooting incidents in Limerick last night ?

Gang warfare over one section of the "global market" leading to how many dead in Dublin this year ?

An economy that's as bent as Putin's Russia ?

The EU's Nigeria.

[JoJo]

I would love to know how you jumped from three shootings in Limerick to the conclusion of 'The EU's Nigeria'. If I didn't know any better, I'd say it was sour grapes. But that would be your problem, not mine.

"An economy that's as bent as Putin's Russia?"

I'd love to see what you've got in store to back up this argueement. Please explain, using facts and links how our economy is comparable on the same scale as that of Russia. Since most other economists would state that our economey is similar (if in a little better state) than the UK, you will also have to prove the vast differences between the squeaky clean UK economy and the 'devils buttermilk' of an economy the ROI has. I await your reply (but I'll not hold my breath).

[Colm]

JoJo

Mad always likes to have a go at the Republic. He's famous for it here.

[JoJo]

"

JoJo

Mad always likes to have a go at the Republic. He's famous for it here."

thanks for the heads up Colom. And tell me, does he ever back up what he says like a man, or does he prefer to regurgitate some uneducated and illogial diatribe that he once heard someone else say and thought it was clever?

"The Irish Times, Ireland is now the second wealthiest nation in the world with more than 30,000 millionaires living here, according to new research published by Bank of Ireland Private Banking.

"Astounding" growth in personal wealth has pushed the Republic into second place in a survey of the top eight Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) nations.

The average personal wealth per head of population in the Republic is nearly euro 150,000, the "Wealth of the Nation" report found. This is higher than average wealth of euro 137,000 in the United Kingdom and euro 129,000 in the United States.

Only Japan has higher net wealth per head of population than the Republic at euro 206,000."

Madradin Ruad,

You are a joke.

[Convey]

That was me, my bad, I forgot my tag.

[daytripper]

Mad,

An economy that's as bent as Putin's Russia ?

is any economy not bent?

[SG]

Madradin Ruad,

Yet again you are an embarrasment to ordinary Unionists.

So there is crime in the ROI - that takes away from their economic achievements how?

Do try to grow up, attempt to reign in your very obvious jealosy/envy of the Republic's recent achievements.

I , as a Unionist am glad that our neighbours have advanced economically and socially - It is good for us as it may to investment in Ulster's economy and is definately good news for our ROI Brethren.

Grow up.

[Reg]

"And tell me, does he ever back up what he says like a man, or does he prefer to regurgitate some uneducated and illogial diatribe that he once heard someone else say and thought it was clever?"

In fairness, JoJo, he usually has a stockpile of links/quotes to "prove":

a) the Republic is a backward "green-banana republic";
b) nationalists are bigots;
c) unionists are great fellows altogether;

and, most recently,

d) that there is no such thing as "the Irish nation".

These links are never, ever completely one-sided or taken out of context. No siree bob.

[JoJo]

Thanks Reg,

As I stated in my original post, most people are not really bothered by what's being 'discussed' around a pump in Ballymena, that goes for this guy's tired views too.
He better stay out of Belfasts newly developed Titanic quarter so, since the funding for this came from Dublin. OH the corruption!!

[Madradin Ruad]

well, well - how long before "gerryadams1@yahoo.com " comes clean as to who she is ? ;)

Don't be fooled colm - it's the troll back again.

Convey - remember how wealthy Nigeria was ? ;)

It'll go like snow off a ditch - especially if SF are brought into government and are their economic policies are followed LOL

All that foreign money will go ...and a lot of the "Irish" money is already abroad !