You Don't Get Me, I'm Part of the Union

I wasn't even on solids when Leicester band, The Strawbs, boomed their hit across the airwaves in February 1973.  It reached number 2 in the UK charts.  However, there is one Union that reached number 1 in 1921 and has continued to top the charts ever since.  The chart in question is the Chart of Northern Ireland Constitutional Preferences and, as we see from the very latest Life and Times Survey for 2005, the long-term constitutional choice of remaining an integral part of the United Kingdom is head-and-shoulders above any of its rivals.

I spoke with Paula Devine on Monday when the survey was due to come on line.  She told me that technical hitches would delay the moment of truth by 48 hours.  Hence, I sat before the computer in eager anticipation as I knew the separatist lobby would get another delicious body-blow no less severe than they deserved.  Top preference for the Union consists of the overwhelming number of Protestants, a quarter of all Catholics and almost half of those expressing no religion (which could conceivably incorporate the rapidly rising immigrant population).  It is also the clear frontrunner in every age category.

'Ah but this is just one opinion poll', I hear the separatist lobby cry with indignation.  The trouble for them is that the L&T survey is just one in a long list of polls and surveys dating back to the beginning of the Troubles showing remarkably consistent choices - both with regard to religious background and age profile.  Tom Wilson's superb book, 'Ulster: Conflict and Consent' has the results of innumerable polls and academic surveys with a high degree of consistency.  One poll can be considered an aberration.  A few polls may raise some eyebrows.  Every opinion poll and academic study since 1968 - not one of which has put the choice for an all-Ireland republic above 30% - can possibly be ignored.

'Electoral results are a better indicator' continue to insist the nationalists.  Not necessarily so.  Various university lecturers - from Paul Bew to Arthur Aughey - have long argued that 'soft' nationalist support for a party such as the SDLP (formally committed to the end of the Union) is more to do with communal advancement within the Northern state than it has to do with secession.  Of the 80,000 who have stopped voting for the SDLP as it becomes ever-greener, only 20,000 have gone to Sinn Fein/IRA.  A doubtful coincidence.

'You don't get me, I'm part of the Union.  Till the day I die..'  The difficulty for separatists is that, on these results, the Union will be here long after I'm spreading my wings.

Comments

[Peter]

Interesting. Only 50% of Catholics want a united Ireland.

[Madradin Ruad]

Must be a securocrat plot ;)

[Colm]

Now If only 100% of the people of N.I would agree to 'Love thy neighbour'....

[daytripper]

amen colm

[Madradin Ruad]

I don't think my neighbour (an elderly devout spinster ) would appreciate my love ;)

[Colm]

Oh I don't know, you'll be surprised what a woman will appreciate when she's desperate ;)

[Reg]

Hmmm. Where do all these pro-union catholics live? I've yet to meet one. (OK, I used to know ONE, but he was a dick).

Seriously though, it shouldn't be allowed. I'm writing a letter to the Pope.

[daytripper]

and you know what they say about older women mad ;)

[Madradin Ruad]

Don't yell, don't tel and grateful as hell ? ;)

Reg - if you were a pro-union RC would you broadcast it ?

[daytripper]

Don't yell, don't tel and grateful as hell

lol.

maybe monica can confirm this?

[Madradin Ruad]

maybe monica can confirm this?

it's been nice knowing you daytripper !

[daytripper]

Ill be thinking of Troll. ;)

[Reg]

"Reg - if you were a pro-union RC would you broadcast it ?"

I don't know if I could live with such a dirty little secret.

[Andrew McCann]

'I don't know if I could live with such a dirty little secret.'

Is this a suicide note?

[aileen]

I have known a few. The first of my political network to talk in terms of supporting the DUP was an RC unionist.

[Reg]

"Is this a suicide note?"

Nah. But if I ever turn pro-union I'll make sure to throw myself off a tall building - it might be genetic.

[Ulster Tory]

Have I missed the coverage of this on the BBC, UTV, Belfast Telegraph, etc?

[Paul]

'Electoral results are a better indicator' continue to insist the nationalists. Not necessarily so."

Regarding recent election results (from the GFA onwards), a relevant piece of information is the number of people who no longer vote. If my abacus is on form, we're looking at between 28-37% of the population, who can't be bothered to register their choice anymore.

Who would be included in this figure?

1. The hardest of the hardest Republicans who believe Gerry & Co have sold out to the Brits.

2. People, who although reasonably happy with the present status quo (otherwise they'd be voting for the parties wanting Irish Unity surely?), think Northern Irish politics is a sick joke.

3. The apolitical/lazy.

Category Three probably will never make it as far as the polling station whatever the situation.

Which leaves Category 1) and 2).

Despite what the Provotrolls and the rest of The Nationalist Front on Slugger will no doubt argue, I'd reckon the number of dissident Republicans would be greatly outnumbered by those in Category 2.

"Hmmm. Where do all these pro-union catholics live?"

Reg
Category 2 will contain Catholics, Protestants, Muslims, Jews, Hindus and basically everyone who is happy with their present situation. It doesn't mean they would necessarily see themselves as British. But as long as "peace" continues, their economic and career situation continues to improve and they are free to express their national or religious identity, they see little point in swapping for what would be a very uncertain future in a United Ireland.

That's what I think anyway;)

[aileen]

I've seen opinion polls asking this question broken down by voting preference and very sifnificant % of SDLP voters were pro Union never mind the % that were not pro UI.

[Reg]

Pro-union SDLP voters? That's a bit odd given that one of the party's stated aims is national unity. Did these polls include the West Belfast unionists who vote SDLP to try to keep out Big Gerry? ;)

Although, look at Alex Atwood...hmmm

[aileen]

No it just means that the border is not something everyone votes on in elections. Some may consider the SDLP the better left wing alternative. Some may consider them a "Catholoc rights" party.